By 2030, for every 3 cars sold worldwide, one will bear a Chinese brand, a staggering proportion. And this rapid growth of the Chinese automotive industry is primarily attributed to exports.
Excess capacity in the domestic market is driving Chinese car manufacturers to boost exports (Illustrative image: Autopian).
Currently, Chinese cars hold up to 21% of the global market share, but analysts believe that the country's automotive industry will expand rapidly in the near future. The increase in market share of Chinese cars is somewhat taken from Western brands.
Chinese car brands are expected to increase their domestic market share from 59% to 72%.
According to AlixPartners, Chinese car sales from overseas markets will surge from 3 million units this year to 9 million units by 2030.
The 100% tariff imposed by the U.S. will hinder Chinese car exports to the North American market, while the entrance to the Japanese market is also limited. However, AlixPartners predicts that Chinese car manufacturers will double their market share in Europe to 12% by 2030 and increase market share in Russia from 33% to 69%.
Chinese car sales in the Middle East and Africa are expected to increase from 8% to 39%, while market share in Central and South America could rise from 7% to 28%.
Below is AlixPartners' forecast of the market share of Chinese cars in various markets:
| Market | Market Share in 2024 | Forecasted Market Share in 2030 |
| Global | 21% | 33% |
| China | 59% | 72% |
| Russia | 33% | 69% |
| Europe | 6% | 12% |
| North America | 1% | 3% |
| Central and South America | 7% | 28% |
| Middle East and Africa | 8% | 39% |
| Japan | 0% | 1% |
| South and Southeast Asia | 3% | 31% |
Chinese car manufacturers are known for high-profit margins and extremely competitive pricing strategies, but analysts have pointed out other important advantages. This includes product development time being only half of Western car manufacturers, and Chinese car companies having the ability to frequently refresh their product portfolio.
"Chinese brands provide customers with a higher level of satisfaction than expected, for example, in terms of design and technology inside the car; they are extremely focused on maintaining cost advantages even when building factories overseas; and they are pioneering in some new technology areas, such as battery production," said Andrew Bergbaum, an expert at AlixPartners.
Experts at AlixPartners have been studying China's growth chart for many years.
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